Polling (Middleton)
13%
Roy leads at 40%
Cash on Hand
--
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Search Index
76
Roy at 100
News Mentions
--
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Threat Level
Medium
2 active threats
🎯
DECISION ADVANTAGE BRIEFING
● LIVE
Updated 3 min ago • AI-Generated
📍 What's Happening
Roy Super PAC launched "Money Mayes" attack ad. Velocity: HIGH - spreading 3x faster
than typical attack. Origin: Conservative TX Twitter accounts. Now reaching mainstream media.
📊 What It Means
Attack targets your business record. Risk: MEDIUM-HIGH. If unanswered in 4-6 hours,
likely to cement into search behavior and donor concern. Club for Growth $250K suggests coordinated
push.
⚡ Do This Next
1. Deploy "Texas Jobs" counter-narrative on digital (draft ready)
2. Prep surrogate response for media inquiries
3. Monitor Harris County sentiment for 2 hours
2. Prep surrogate response for media inquiries
3. Monitor Harris County sentiment for 2 hours
⚡
DO THIS NEXT
3 Priority Actions
1
Respond to "Money Mayes" Attack
Deploy counter-narrative within 2 hours • Digital + Surrogate response • Draft
ready for approval
2
Accept Houston Chronicle Interview
Opportunity to control narrative • Suggested talking points available •
Deadline: Today 5pm
3
Review Roy's San Antonio Push
Unusual ad spend in SATX market • May indicate strategic pivot • Analysis
available
📊
Polling Comparison
Public Polls Avg
Undecided: 27% • No RCP average exists • Last public poll: Oct 2025
VERIFIED PUBLIC POLLS
• Pulse Decision Science (~Oct 2025): Roy 40%, Huffman 13%, Middleton 13%
• UH/TSU Survey (Sep-Oct 2025, ±2.41%): Roy 40%, Huffman 12%, Middleton 3%
• co/efficient (Jan 2026): Roy 24%, Huffman 8%, Middleton 4%
No RCP average exists. No Jan 2026
public polls found.
🚨
Narrative Tracker
2 Active Threats
Attack: "Money Mayes" narrative
8 min ago • Roy Super PAC
78% Velocity
Origin: @TXConservative • Reach: 12.4K •
Amplifiers: 34 accounts
Roy received $250K from Club for Growth
45 min ago • FEC Filing
45% Velocity
Signal: Coordinated ad buy likely incoming
Houston Chronicle requesting interview
1 hr ago • Media • Opportunity to control narrative
#MiddletonForAG trending in Houston
2 hrs ago • Twitter/X • 1,247 mentions/hr
62% Organic
Huffman town hall scheduled in Galveston
3 hrs ago • Events
Negative article in Texas Monthly
5 hrs ago • News • Velocity declining
23% ↓ Cooling
Texas Right to Life considering endorsement
6 hrs ago • Intel
📈
Impact Tracking: Response Effectiveness
Closed Loop
✓ "Border Security" Response (Jan 28)
EFFECTIVE
Huffman attack on immigration stance neutralized within 6 hours
-67%
Negative Mentions
-42%
Search Volume
+8%
Sentiment Shift
⏳ "Oil Money" Response (Jan 25)
PARTIAL
Initial response slowed spread, but narrative persisting in rural areas
-31%
Negative Mentions
-12%
Search Volume
+2%
Sentiment Shift
AI INSIGHT: Responses within 4 hours show 3.2x better effectiveness. Rural markets
require additional surrogate activation. Digital-first responses outperform press release only by 2.8x.
💰
Campaign Finance Tracker
Jan 2026 Filing
Candidate
Raised
Spent
Cash
Burn
Middleton
$11.8M
$7.0M
$5.0M
~$540K/wk
Roy
$4.5M
$300K
$4.2M
~$23K/wk
Huffman
$3.8M
$1.5M
$3.0M
$62K/wk
Reitz
$3.0M
$678K
$3.0M
$34K/wk
KEY FUNDING DETAILS (Jan 2026
Filing)
• Middleton: $10M+ self-funded via personal loans
• Middleton: Only ~$166K in outside contributions
• Roy: $2.0M transferred from congressional campaign
• Roy: $250K each from Scharbauer, Seale, TX GOP Leadership Fund
📱
Social Media Command
+12% Engagement
🔥
Monitor
Trending: #MiddletonForAG
1,247 mentions in last hour
COMPETITOR SOCIAL GROWTH
Roy: +3.2K (4.1%)
Huffman: +890 (1.2%)
Reitz: +234 (0.8%)
🔍
Search Intelligence
Google Trends
GOOGLE TRENDS INDEX (RELATIVE 0-100)
TRENDING SEARCH TERMS
"mayes middleton net worth"
Breakout ↑
"middleton self funding"
Rising ↑
"texas ag debate 2026"
Breakout ↑
"chip roy paxton"
Declining ↓
"middleton oil company"
Rising ↑
📰
News & Media Monitor
1
3
4
Meet all four Republican candidates running for Texas AG
A look at the 4 Republican candidates in primary race for AG
Republican candidate says separation of church and state does not exist
Dallas Morning News editorial endorsement of Huffman
Middleton says AG election is two-man race between him, Chip Roy
Millions pour into GOP Texas attorney general primary
📧
Opponent Email Monitor
38 captured · Manually tracked
Roy Campaign
ATTACK: "Mayes Middleton thinks he can bypass Texas voters
with his checkbook."
2 hrs ago
Roy Campaign
ATTACK: "Here's the truth about who's really fighting for
Texas."
6 hrs ago
Reitz Campaign
Paxton: "Aaron Reitz will be the greatest attorney general Texas has ever
seen"
1 day ago
Roy Campaign
Ted Cruz: "There is no one better to be the next AG." Chip in $25
1 day ago
Huffman Campaign
Dallas Morning News endorses Huffman: "most likely to serve the average
Texan"
2 days ago
Huffman Campaign
Huffman surging with women voters — help us reach $500K goal by Friday
2 days ago
Roy Campaign
ATTACK: "Is Texas for sale? Middleton thinks so."
3 days ago
Reitz Campaign
"I will keep my foot on the gas and carry on Paxton's legacy"
3 days ago
Key Insight: Roy intensifying "Money Mayes" attacks ahead of Feb 17 early voting • All
opponents converging on self-funding narrative
📅
Events & Schedule
17
Feb
RAGA Republican AG Debate
All candidates • RAGA-hosted
8
Feb
Texas Right to Life Forum
Middleton CONFIRMED
10
Feb
Huffman Fundraiser - River Oaks
$1,000/plate dinner
12
Feb
Roy Town Hall - San Antonio
Open to public • 6pm
15
Feb
FEC Filing Deadline
January report due
17
Feb
Early Voting Begins
Statewide
3
Mar
Primary Election Day
Texas Republican Primary
👥
Opponent Intelligence
MM
Mayes Middleton OUR
CANDIDATE
$5.0M
Cash
13%
Poll
62%
Sent
73%
Name ID
CR
Chip Roy FRONTRUNNER
$4.2M
Cash
40%
Poll
58%
Sent
81%
Name ID
JH
Joan Huffman
$2.7M
Cash
13%
Poll
54%
Sent
67%
Name ID
AR
Aaron Reitz
$3.0M
Cash
7%
Poll
51%
Sent
34%
Name ID
📺
Ad Spend Intelligence
Last 30 Days
TV
Digital
Radio
Mail
AD IMPRESSIONS (Est.)
24.3M
Middleton
12.1M
Roy
9.8M
Huffman
3.2M
Reitz
💰 Campaign Finance Intelligence
Live Feed
Candidate
Raised
Self-Funded
Outside
Spent
Cash
Burn Rate
Mayes Middleton
$11,800,000
$10,000,000
$166,000
$7,000,000
$5,000,000
~$540K/wk
Chip Roy
$4,500,000
$0
$4,500,000
$300,000
$4,200,000
~$23K/wk
Joan Huffman
$3,800,000
$250,000
$3,550,000
$1,500,000
$3,000,000
$62K/wk
Aaron Reitz
$3,000,000
$0
$3,000,000
$678,000
$3,000,000
$34K/wk
Recent
Major Donations (> $10k)
| Donor | Target | Amount | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Self-funded (Personal Loans) | Middleton | $10,000,000 | Jul–Dec 2025 |
| Congressional Campaign Transfer | Roy | $2,000,000 | Jul–Dec 2025 |
| Douglas Scharbauer (Midland rancher) | Roy | $250,000 | Jul–Dec 2025 |
| Robert "Hank" Seale (Houston investor) | Roy | $250,000 | Jul–Dec 2025 |
| TX Republican Leadership Fund (Alex Fairly PAC) | Roy | $250,000 | Jul–Dec 2025 |
| Club for Growth PAC | Roy | $250,000 | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Dan Patrick PAC | Huffman | $75,000 | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Tim Dunn | Middleton | $50,000 | Jan 24, 2026 |
| Empower Texans | Middleton | $25,000 | Jan 20, 2026 |
📺 Media & Ad Spend Intelligence
AD SPEND BY CHANNEL (STACKED)
Mayes Middleton
$6.0M Total
Chip Roy
$1.2M Total
Joan Huffman
$1.5M Total
TV
Digital
Radio
Direct Mail
ESTIMATED IMPRESSIONS
BY
CANDIDATE
24.3M
Middleton
12.1M
Roy
9.8M
Huffman
3.2M
Reitz
🔥 Spend Velocity Heatmap
LAST 30 DAYS INTENSITY
Low Velocity
High Velocity
🏢 Top Vendor Leaderboard
1
The Strategy Group
$4.2M
2
Convergence Media
$2.8M
3
Capitol Resource
$0.4M
🌎 PAC Wealth Geography
Permian Basin / Oil38%
Austin Lobby / Corp24%
Houston Suburbs15%
PAN
WEST
CENT
EAST
SOUTH
TERRITORY WEALTH HEATMAP
🔍 Google Trends Volume
Last 90 Days — TX
Google Trends provides relative index scores (0-100), not absolute volumes. Roy = 100 baseline.
GAP WIDENING: Roy's search dominance surged after Cruz
endorsement (Aug 2025). Middleton's $6M ad spend generating impressions but not closing the search gap.
Roy is baseline at Index 100.
📈 Top Search Terms
"mayes middleton net worth"
Attack
Breakout ↑
"middleton church state separation"
Controversial
Breakout ↑
"chip roy vs middleton poll"
Neutral
Rising ↑
"middleton oil company lawsuit"
Attack
Rising ↑
"middleton deport all immigrants"
Controversial
Rising ↑
"middleton racist comment gene wu"
Attack
Rising ↑
"texas ag primary date 2026"
Informational
Breakout ↑
⚠️ Attack Search Terms
EMERGING THREATS
"money mayes ads"
Breakout ↑
"middleton shell company"
Breakout ↑
"mayes middleton lawsuit"
Rising ↑
"middleton self funding"
Rising ↑
"mayes middleton racist"
Rising ↑
Attack terms accelerating as early voting approaches (Feb 17). Three converging vulnerabilities:
self-funding narrative ("Money Mayes"), business structure questions ($25M lawsuit, shell entities), and
the Gene Wu racist comment resurfacing.
🤖 AI Perception Analysis
QUALITATIVE
NOTE: No AI platform publishes topic-level prompt/query data. The volume numbers below
are ESTIMATED / MODELED based on relative search interest and are not verified. Use
directional trends only, not absolute numbers.
KEY INSIGHT: AI platforms consistently surface Roy as frontrunner when users query the TX
AG race. Perplexity citation model surfaces the most critical content about Middleton
(self-funding, controversies).
💬
ChatGPT
Est. High
UNVERIFIABLE
🎨
Claude
Est. Medium
UNVERIFIABLE
💎
Gemini
Est. High
UNVERIFIABLE
🌀
Grok
Est. Low
UNVERIFIABLE
🌐
Perplexity
Est. Growing
UNVERIFIABLE
CONVERTED SEARCH-TO-PROMPT TRENDS
| Original Keyword | Top AI Prompt | Core Engine | AI Response Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| "who is mayes middleton" | "Provide a summary of Mayes Middleton's political career and donors" | ChatGPT/Claude | Balanced/Bio |
| "middleton budget plan" | "Explain Mayes Middleton's stance on state tax cuts vs local funding" | Gemini/ChatGPT | Policy Detail |
| "middleton controversy" | "What are the controversies surrounding Mayes Middleton?" | Perplexity | Critical/Aggregated |
| "middleton for ag poll" | "Who is currently leading the 2026 Texas AG Republican primary?" | Grok/Perplexity | CRITICAL — Roy 40% |
| "middleton self funding" | "How much of his own money has Mayes Middleton spent on his AG campaign?" | ChatGPT/Perplexity | Critical/Financial |
| "middleton vs chip roy" | "Compare Mayes Middleton and Chip Roy for Texas Attorney General" | Claude/Gemini | Comparative/Neutral |
| "texas ag endorsements 2026" | "Who has endorsed candidates in the Texas AG race?" | Perplexity/Gemini | Endorsement Tracker |
🚨 AI Perception Gap — Strategic Implications
ACTION REQUIRED
POLLING NARRATIVE
Every AI platform shows Roy leading 40% to
Middleton's 3-13%. Anyone using AI to research the race gets told Middleton is losing badly.
SELF-FUNDING FRAMING
AI responses consistently frame
self-funding negatively, using phrases like "bought his seat" and "Money Mayes." $10M self-loan is the
#1 data point surfaced.
CONTROVERSY
SURFACING
Perplexity and Grok most aggressive at
surfacing the Gene Wu racist comment and the $25M lawsuit when users search for Middleton.
ENDORSEMENT DEFICIT
AI endorsement comparisons favor Roy (Cruz)
and Reitz (Paxton) over Middleton (Riley Gaines). Middleton needs more high-profile endorsements.
RECOMMENDED
COUNTER-ACTIONS
- Push earned media wins (legislative achievements, border security record) to feed AI training data
- Secure additional high-profile endorsements that AI will surface
- Consider SEO/content strategy to improve AI-scraped results for "Mayes Middleton"
- Monitor Perplexity specifically — it's the fastest-growing election info source and currently surfaces the most critical content
Articles Tracked
--
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Share of Voice
42%
↑ 5% week
Positive Coverage
58
↑ 3
Sentiment Breakdown
Positive
Neutral
Negative
📅 Campaigns Calendar
SUN
MON
TUE
WED
THU
FRI
SAT
25
26
27
Our Fundraiser
28
29
Roy T. Hall
30
31
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
📡 Live Intelligence Feed
● LIVE
⏳
Loading live news...
📰 Coverage by Outlet
| Outlet | Freq | Tone |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Tribune | 24 | 68 |
| Houston Chron | 18 | 82 |
| Dallas Morning | 15 | 45 |
⚠️ Territory Alerts
GALVESTON BREACH
Huffman has 3 private events in your home territory over
the next 48 hours.
🗓️ Key Deadlines
FEC Filing ReportFeb 15
Early VotingFeb 17
Election DayMar 3
Emails Captured
38
↑ 4 today
Attack Emails
15
↑ High Intensity
Avg. Frequency
2.8/day
↑ Roy increasing pre-primary
Donation Clicks (Est)
Medium
↑ Roy fundraising spiking off Cruz
KEY INSIGHT: Roy campaign intensifying "Money Mayes" attacks ahead of Feb 17 early voting.
Reitz leaning on Paxton endorsement. Huffman leveraging Dallas Morning News endorsement and women voter
appeal. All three opponents converging on self-funding narrative against Middleton.
📧 Captured Opponent Emails
▶
Roy Camp
ATTACK: "Mayes Middleton thinks he can bypass Texas voters
with his checkbook."
Attack
2h ago
From: Chip Roy for Texas AG <info@chiproy.com>
Feb 6, 2026 — 10:14 AM
Subject: Is Money Mayes trying to BUY your vote?
Friend,
Mayes Middleton thinks he can bypass Texas voters with his checkbook. He's already poured over $10 MILLION of his own money into this race — and he's not done yet.
That's more than every other candidate combined. Ask yourself: why does a man need to spend that kind of money to win? Because he can't earn your vote on the merits.
I'm the only candidate in this race endorsed by Ted Cruz. I've fought in Congress for your rights. Middleton wrote checks from his mansion in Galveston.
Can you chip in $25 right now to fight back?
— Chip Roy
Friend,
Mayes Middleton thinks he can bypass Texas voters with his checkbook. He's already poured over $10 MILLION of his own money into this race — and he's not done yet.
That's more than every other candidate combined. Ask yourself: why does a man need to spend that kind of money to win? Because he can't earn your vote on the merits.
I'm the only candidate in this race endorsed by Ted Cruz. I've fought in Congress for your rights. Middleton wrote checks from his mansion in Galveston.
Can you chip in $25 right now to fight back?
— Chip Roy
▶
Roy Camp
ATTACK: "For 10 years, Chip Roy has been... wait, that's
Middleton's line."
Attack
6h ago
From: Chip Roy for Texas AG <info@chiproy.com>
Feb 6, 2026 — 6:30 AM
Subject: The truth about who's really fighting for Texas
You may have seen Mayes Middleton's latest attack ad claiming "For 10 years, Chip Roy has been fighting President Trump."
Let me set the record straight.
I stood with President Trump to secure the border. I fought the Democrats' reckless spending. I was one of the strongest conservative voices in the House.
Middleton? He was writing $10 million checks to himself and sitting in the Texas legislature. Now he's trying to rewrite history.
The real question isn't who spent the most money — it's who actually fought for you.
Stand with me today.
— Chip
You may have seen Mayes Middleton's latest attack ad claiming "For 10 years, Chip Roy has been fighting President Trump."
Let me set the record straight.
I stood with President Trump to secure the border. I fought the Democrats' reckless spending. I was one of the strongest conservative voices in the House.
Middleton? He was writing $10 million checks to himself and sitting in the Texas legislature. Now he's trying to rewrite history.
The real question isn't who spent the most money — it's who actually fought for you.
Stand with me today.
— Chip
▶
Reitz Camp
Paxton endorsement: "Aaron Reitz will be the greatest attorney general
Texas has ever seen"
Messaging
1d ago
From: Aaron Reitz for AG <team@reitzforag.com>
Feb 5, 2026 — 9:00 AM
Subject: Ken Paxton just said this about Aaron...
Friend,
I'm honored to share that Attorney General Ken Paxton has officially endorsed our campaign. In his own words:
"I know Aaron Reitz. I worked with Aaron Reitz. And I know he will be the greatest attorney general Texas has ever seen."
As First Assistant AG, I helped lead the fights that mattered — protecting the border, defending Texas sovereignty, and taking on the Biden administration.
I will keep my foot on the gas and energetically carry on Paxton's legacy. We won't skip a beat.
Join us,
Aaron Reitz
Friend,
I'm honored to share that Attorney General Ken Paxton has officially endorsed our campaign. In his own words:
"I know Aaron Reitz. I worked with Aaron Reitz. And I know he will be the greatest attorney general Texas has ever seen."
As First Assistant AG, I helped lead the fights that mattered — protecting the border, defending Texas sovereignty, and taking on the Biden administration.
I will keep my foot on the gas and energetically carry on Paxton's legacy. We won't skip a beat.
Join us,
Aaron Reitz
▶
Roy Camp
FUNDRAISING: "Ted Cruz: 'There is no one better to be the
next Attorney General.'"
Fundraising
1d ago
From: Chip Roy for Texas AG <info@chiproy.com>
Feb 5, 2026 — 7:00 PM
Subject: Ted Cruz just said this...
Senator Ted Cruz:
"Chip Roy is a battle-tested warrior and a fierce defender of the Constitution. There is no one better to be the next Attorney General of Texas."
Friend, with this endorsement, the establishment is running scared. But Mayes Middleton can write himself another $10 million check tonight.
We need grassroots patriots to step up. Can you chip in $25 before midnight?
Every dollar fights back against the billionaire trying to buy this seat.
— Team Roy
Senator Ted Cruz:
"Chip Roy is a battle-tested warrior and a fierce defender of the Constitution. There is no one better to be the next Attorney General of Texas."
Friend, with this endorsement, the establishment is running scared. But Mayes Middleton can write himself another $10 million check tonight.
We need grassroots patriots to step up. Can you chip in $25 before midnight?
Every dollar fights back against the billionaire trying to buy this seat.
— Team Roy
▶
Huffman Camp
The Dallas Morning News endorses Joan Huffman: "the candidate most likely
to serve the average Texan"
Messaging
2d ago
From: Joan Huffman for AG <team@joanhuffman.com>
Feb 4, 2026 — 11:00 AM
Subject: Major endorsement just dropped
I'm proud to share that the Dallas Morning News has endorsed our campaign for Attorney General. From their editorial:
"Joan Huffman is the candidate most likely to serve the average Texan's everyday needs. She has the legal experience, judicial temperament, and legislative know-how to lead the AG's office effectively."
While my opponents trade attack ads and spend millions on negative campaigns, I'm focused on what matters — protecting Texas families, fighting fentanyl, and upholding the rule of law.
Joan Huffman
I'm proud to share that the Dallas Morning News has endorsed our campaign for Attorney General. From their editorial:
"Joan Huffman is the candidate most likely to serve the average Texan's everyday needs. She has the legal experience, judicial temperament, and legislative know-how to lead the AG's office effectively."
While my opponents trade attack ads and spend millions on negative campaigns, I'm focused on what matters — protecting Texas families, fighting fentanyl, and upholding the rule of law.
Joan Huffman
▶
Huffman Camp
FUNDRAISING: "New poll shows Huffman surging with women
voters — help us reach our $500K goal"
Fundraising
2d ago
From: Joan Huffman for AG <team@joanhuffman.com>
Feb 4, 2026 — 5:00 PM
Subject: We're surging — can you help us finish strong?
Great news: a new internal poll shows Joan Huffman surging with women voters across Texas. We're building real momentum heading into early voting.
But we need your help. Our opponents are spending millions — one of them is self-funding over $10 million. We can't match that. But we can match their reach with grassroots support.
Our goal: $500,000 by Friday.
Every contribution helps us get Joan's message to more Texas voters. Can you chip in today?
— Team Huffman
Great news: a new internal poll shows Joan Huffman surging with women voters across Texas. We're building real momentum heading into early voting.
But we need your help. Our opponents are spending millions — one of them is self-funding over $10 million. We can't match that. But we can match their reach with grassroots support.
Our goal: $500,000 by Friday.
Every contribution helps us get Joan's message to more Texas voters. Can you chip in today?
— Team Huffman
▶
Roy Camp
ATTACK: "Is Texas for sale? Middleton thinks so."
Attack
3d ago
From: Chip Roy for Texas AG <info@chiproy.com>
Feb 3, 2026 — 12:00 PM
Subject: Is Texas for sale?
Friend,
Mayes Middleton thinks Texas is for sale. And he's got the checkbook to prove it.
He bought his House seat. He bought his Senate seat. Now he is trying to buy the AG seat.
Over $10 million of his own money — and barely $166,000 from actual Texans. That tells you everything you need to know about who he's fighting for: himself.
I'm fighting for YOU. And I need your help to beat a self-funding millionaire.
Rush $25 or more right now >>
— Chip Roy
Friend,
Mayes Middleton thinks Texas is for sale. And he's got the checkbook to prove it.
He bought his House seat. He bought his Senate seat. Now he is trying to buy the AG seat.
Over $10 million of his own money — and barely $166,000 from actual Texans. That tells you everything you need to know about who he's fighting for: himself.
I'm fighting for YOU. And I need your help to beat a self-funding millionaire.
Rush $25 or more right now >>
— Chip Roy
▶
Reitz Camp
"I will keep my foot on the gas and energetically carry on Paxton's legacy"
Messaging
3d ago
From: Aaron Reitz for AG <team@reitzforag.com>
Feb 3, 2026 — 8:00 AM
Subject: Carrying the torch
Friend,
I served as Ken Paxton's First Assistant Attorney General. I know the AG's office inside and out — every case, every fight, every battle with the federal government.
I will keep my foot on the gas and energetically carry on Paxton's legacy. We won't skip a beat on day one.
My opponents are career politicians and Washington insiders. They'll need months to figure out what I already know. Texas can't afford that learning curve.
Are you with me?
Aaron Reitz
Friend,
I served as Ken Paxton's First Assistant Attorney General. I know the AG's office inside and out — every case, every fight, every battle with the federal government.
I will keep my foot on the gas and energetically carry on Paxton's legacy. We won't skip a beat on day one.
My opponents are career politicians and Washington insiders. They'll need months to figure out what I already know. Texas can't afford that learning curve.
Are you with me?
Aaron Reitz
🥊 Key Attack Lines & Themes
MESSAGING THEMES
"THE RICH CANDIDATE"
Used in 85% of Roy's emails. Focusing on
self-funding as "buying the seat".
"NOT A FIGHTER"
Roy positioning as battle-tested via Cruz
endorsement. Implicit contrast: Roy fought in Congress, Middleton spent money.
"TRUMP DISLOYALTY" OUR COUNTER
Middleton counter-attack: "Chip said Trump
committed impeachable conduct, siding with Liz Cheney against Trump." and "For 10 years, Chip Roy
has been fighting President Trump and his MAGA agenda."
"RINO ALERT"
Attempting to link Middleton to "moderate"
business groups in Austin.
KEY ATTACK LINES Captured:
- "He bought his House seat. He bought his Senate seat. Now he is trying to buy the AG seat." — Roy/allies
- "Mayes Middleton thinks he can bypass Texas voters with his checkbook." — Roy
- "A battle-tested warrior and a fierce defender of the Constitution" — Cruz endorsing Roy
- "For 10 years, Chip Roy has been fighting President Trump and his Make America Great agenda." — Middleton counter-attack
- "Chip said Trump committed impeachable conduct, siding with Liz Cheney against Trump." — Middleton, Spectrum News Jan 22
- "I know he will be the greatest attorney general Texas has ever seen." — Paxton endorsing Reitz
- "The candidate most likely to serve the average Texan's everyday needs" — Dallas Morning News endorsing Huffman, Feb 1
📈 Polling Trend (Public Polls)
UH/TSU
Sep-Oct 25
Sep-Oct 25
Pulse
~Oct 25
~Oct 25
co/eff
Jan 26
Jan 26
Roy
Middleton
📊 Individual Poll Breakdown
| Source | Date | Mid | Roy | Huff | Und |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pulse Decision | ~Oct 25 | 13% | 40% | 13% | 27% |
| UH/TSU ±2.41% | Sep-Oct 25 | 3% | 40% | 12% | 37% |
| co/efficient | Jan 26 | 4% | 24% | 8% | -- |
| Roy Internal ⚠️ | ~Nov 25 | 9% | 49% | 10% | 26% |
👥 Demographic Crosstabs (Middleton Support)
Urban/Suburban Voters
32%
Rural Voters
24%
Women Over 45
38%
🎯 Issue Trust (Who Voters Trust Most)
| Issue | Middleton | Roy |
|---|---|---|
| Border Security | 45% | 32% |
| Law & Order | 38% | 41% |
| 2nd Amendment | 40% | 44% |
| Election Integrity | 43% | 37% |
STRATEGIC SITUATIONAL AWARENESS: MIDDLETON CAMPAIGN
35 DAYS TO VICTORY
🎯 Targeted Messaging Recommendations
BROADCAST TV /
NORTH
TEXAS
Pivot to "Secure the Grid" and Property Tax relief. High resonant with
undecideds in Tarrant/Collin counties.
SOCIAL MEDIA /
UNDER
45s
Increase focus on "School Choice" and digital freedom. Engagement surges
40% when tied to constitutional rights.
DIRECT MAIL /
RURAL
SOUTH
"Proven Conservative Fighter" theme. Focus on law enforcement
endorsements
and border security track record.
⚡ Rapid Response Scenarios
OPPONENT PIVOT (ROY)
Roy is shifting spend toward Galveston media.
Counter-Play: Release "Galveston Native" spot featuring local law enforcement
immediately.
POLLING DRIFT (HUFFMAN)
Huffman gaining among suburban women.
Counter-Play: Highlight "Family Security" initiative and recent legislative wins
for
children.
💰 Ad Buy Optimization
$200K
RECOMMENDED RE-ALLOCATION
Move from Houston Radio (Saturated) to
Digital West Texas (High Yield).
🔥 Battleground Focus
PAN
WEST
BTL
EAST
SOUTH
TARRANT COUNTY
(VITAL)
🚀 Victory Path Progress
Name ID Target92% / 95%
Voter Turnout Model68% / 80%
📺 TV / Streaming Scripter
🎥 30s SPOT: "TEXAS GRID"
"While Washington plays politics, Mayes Middleton is securing Texas. He's passed the legislation to
build new power plants and protect our grid. Reliable energy. A stronger Texas. Middleton for
Attorney
General."
📱 Social Media Creative
𝕏 / FB: "LAW & ORDER"
"Weak borders mean weak security. Mayes Middleton will NEVER back down to the cartels. RT if you're
standing with a PROVEN Conservative Fighter today! 🛡️🇺🇸 #SecureTheBorder #MiddletonForTexas"
💻 Digital Display Ads
BANNER: "TAX RELIEF"
"YOUR TAX DOLLARS. HIS MISSION. Mayes Middleton is the ONLY candidate with a track record of cutting
property taxes. Click to join the fight for a cheaper Texas."
🤝 Endorsement Scorecard
RACE OVERVIEW
| Category | Middleton | Roy | Huffman | Reitz |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senators | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| U.S. Representatives | 3 | 9+ | 0 | 0 |
| TX State Senators | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| TX State Reps | 12+ | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Statewide Officials | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Law Enforcement | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Media | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| National Figures | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Organizations | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| TOTAL | ~19 | ~19 | ~3 | ~5 |
TRUMP ENDORSEMENT: NONE for any candidate. 56% of GOP primary voters say a Trump
endorsement would make them more likely to vote for a candidate. This is the single biggest wildcard in
the race.
🟡 Middleton Endorsements
~19 Total
U.S.
Representatives (3)
Rep. Lance Gooden (TX-05) · Rep. Randy Weber (TX-14) · Rep. Brian Babin
(TX-36)
TX State
Senate (1)
Sen. Adam Hinojosa
TX State
House (12+)
Rep. Briscoe Cain · Rep. Brian Harrison · Rep. Ben Bumgarner · Rep. JM
Lozano · Rep. Matt Morgan · Rep. Alan Schoolcraft · Rep. Richard Hayes · Rep. Helen Kerwin · Rep.
Valoree Swanson · Rep. Steve Toth · others
National
Figures
Riley Gaines — 12x NCAA All-American,
anti-trans-in-sports activist (tied to Save Women's Sports Act)
Law
Enforcement
Steve McCraw — fmr Director, Texas DPS
Organizations
Young Conservatives of TX (YCT rating: 93, incl. perfect 100 in 2021)
NOTE: Trump endorsed Middleton for 2022 Senate race ("conservative record second to none") but has NOT
endorsed in the AG primary.
🔵 Roy Endorsements
~19 Total
U.S.
Senators (2)
Sen. Ted Cruz (TX) — "a battle-tested warrior... no
one better to be the next AG"
Sen. Mike Lee (UT)
Sen. Mike Lee (UT)
U.S.
Representatives (9+)
Rep. Lauren Boebert · Rep. Byron Donalds · Rep. Ronny Jackson · Rep.
Michael Cloud · Rep. Keith Self · Rep. Pete Sessions · Rep. Beth Van Duyne · Rep. Matt Gaetz · Mark
Meadows (fmr WH Chief of Staff)
TX State
Officials
Sen. Bryan Hughes · Rep. Brian Harrison · Rep. Mitch Little · John Bash
(fmr U.S. Attorney) · Matt Rinaldi (fmr TX GOP Chair) · Eric Johnson (Mayor of Dallas)
Organizations
Gun Owners of Texas · Young Conservatives of TX (shared with Middleton)
STRENGTH: Dominant federal-level endorsements. Cruz + Lee + Boebert + Donalds + Gaetz = strongest "MAGA
Congressional caucus" list.
🟣 Huffman Endorsements
~3 Total
Law
Enforcement (2)
Houston Police Officers Union · TX DPS Officers Association
Media (1)
Dallas Morning News editorial endorsement (Feb 1, 2026)
WEAKNESS: Thinnest endorsement list. Relying on law enforcement credibility and prosecutorial
background. DMN endorsement may not move GOP primary voters.
🟢 Reitz Endorsements
~5 Total
Statewide Officials (1)
AG Ken Paxton — "he will be the greatest attorney
general Texas has ever seen"
Trump
Connection
Trump praised Reitz when appointing him to DOJ: "a true MAGA attorney"
— NOT a formal endorsement
Organizations (2+)
National Border Patrol Council · CPAC · Republicans for National
Renewal · Remembrance Project
WILDCARD: If Trump formally endorses Reitz, it would reshape the race overnight.
🎯 Endorsement Gap Analysis — Middleton
ACTION REQUIRED
Where Middleton is Winning
State House endorsements — More TX state reps than anyone else (Freedom Caucus
network)
Riley Gaines — High-value cultural endorsement tied to Save Women's Sports Act
YCT rating: 93 — Highest among candidates (incl. perfect 100 in 2021)
Where Middleton is Losing
No U.S. Senator endorsement — Roy has Cruz AND Lee. Biggest single gap.
No statewide LE union — Huffman has HPOU + DPS Officers. Reitz has Border Patrol
Council.
No formal Trump endorsement — Despite Trump backing him in 2022. All candidates
competing for MAGA mantle.
No major media endorsement — DMN went to Huffman.
PRIORITY ENDORSEMENT
TARGETS
- Donald Trump — The nuclear option. 56% of GOP primary voters say it matters. Best claim: Trump endorsed Middleton in 2022.
- Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick — Massive influence in TX GOP primaries. Currently uncommitted.
- Gov. Greg Abbott — Officially neutral but an endorsement would be decisive.
- Texas Farm Bureau / NRA Texas — Natural fit given ranching operations and conservative record.
- Sheriffs associations — Border sheriffs especially, given hardline immigration stance.
- MAGA media figures — Tucker Carlson, Steve Bannon, Charlie Kirk would amplify "proven conservative fighter" brand.
📅 Endorsement Timeline
| Date | Endorsement | For | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2025 | Campaign launch + initial TX House endorsements | Middleton | Moderate |
| Jun 2025 | Ken Paxton endorses Reitz | Reitz | High |
| Aug 2025 | Ted Cruz endorses Roy | Roy | Very High |
| Aug 2025 | Sen. Mike Lee + MAGA Congress cluster (Boebert, Donalds, Gaetz) | Roy | High |
| Oct 2025 | Riley Gaines endorses Middleton | Middleton | Moderate-High |
| Nov 2025 | YCT dual endorsement (Middleton + Roy) | Both | Low-Moderate |
| Jan 2026 | Houston Police Officers Union endorses Huffman | Huffman | Moderate |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Dallas Morning News endorses Huffman | Huffman | Low-Moderate |
| TBD | Trump endorsement??? | ??? | RACE-DEFINING |
🧪 BETA FEATURES
Experimental
These features are under active development. Data shown may be simulated or incomplete. Feedback welcome!
🎯 WIN PROBABILITY MODEL
ILLUSTRATIVE ONLY
⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This model is ILLUSTRATIVE ONLY — based on campaign
assumptions, NOT verified polling data. Current public polls show Roy leading at 40% vs Middleton at
13%. Model inputs below are hypothetical scenarios, not projections.
—
Win Probability
Insufficient verified polling data for
model
MODEL INPUTS
(ASSUMPTIONS — NOT VERIFIED)
County Turnout Assumptions
TBD
Undecided Break (Projected)
27% undecided (Pulse Decision Science)
Polling Position
Roy 40% — Middleton 13%
Needs: New verified public poll data to activate this model. The last public poll
(Pulse Decision Science, Feb 2026) shows a 27-point Roy lead.
🗺️ GOTV RISK MAP
Beta
KEY QUESTION
Where could we lose because people simply don't show up?
RISK FACTORS
- Voter universe × historical turnout
- Enthusiasm index scoring
- "Soft supporter" identification
- Priority turf list generation
AT-RISK PRECINCTS
Harris County - Pct 42
HIGH RISK
Galveston - Pct 18
HIGH RISK
Chambers County - Pct 7
MEDIUM
Jefferson - Pct 23
MEDIUM
📺 COMPETITOR AD INTELLIGENCE
Beta
📘
Facebook Ad Library
View all competitor political ads
🔍
Google Ad Transparency
Search & YouTube ad tracking
$89K
Middleton Spend
$187K
Roy Spend
$64K
Huffman Spend
$340K
Total Race Spend
Pro Tip: Monitor competitor ad spend weekly. Sudden increases often signal strategic
pivots or internal polling showing vulnerability. Roy outspending Middleton 2:1 on digital.
🔌 MODEL CONTEXT PROTOCOL (MCP) STATUS
● LIVE
📊
Polling API
Real-time polling aggregation
Active
💰
FEC API
Campaign finance tracking
Active
📰
News API
Automated news monitoring
Active
🤖
AI Analysis
Claude-powered insights
Active
📊 Polling Intelligence
● LIVE
Texas AG Republican Primary 2026
Roy
40%
Middleton
13%
Huffman
13%
Undecided
27%
Source: Pulse Decision Science (~Oct 2025) · UH/TSU (Sept-Oct 2025, ±2.41%) · No Jan 2026 public polls
found
💰 TX Ethics Commission Finance Tracker
● LIVE
$12.0M
Total Raised
$7.0M
Total Spent
Cash on Hand
Comparison
Middleton
$5.0M
Roy
$4.2M
Huffman
$2.7M
Source: TX Ethics Commission · Jan 2026 Filing (Jul–Dec 2025)
📰 News Monitor
● LIVE
📋 DATA SOURCES &
METHODOLOGY
Polling
UH/TSU Hobby School (Sep-Oct 2025, n=1500, ±2.41%)
Pulse Decision Science (~Oct 2025, n=800)
co/efficient (Jan 2026, n=473)
No RCP average. No Jan 2026 public polls.
Campaign Finance
TX Ethics Commission — Jan 2026 Filing (Jul-Dec 2025)
FEC API (federal records for Chip Roy transfer)
Texas Tribune, KSAT reporting (Jan 16, 2026)
Social Media
X/Twitter, Instagram — live counts (last verified: Feb 6, 2026)
YouTube, TikTok — no verified accounts found
Facebook — count unverified (no public API)
Search Data
Google Trends — relative index (0-100), NOT absolute volumes
Trend labels: "Breakout" / "Rising" / "Declining" from Google Trends
AI Perception
Qualitative analysis only — no AI platform publishes query volume data
Prompt counts are UNVERIFIABLE estimates
News & Emails
News: CBS Texas, Spectrum, KLTV, DMN, Texas Tribune (verified)
Opponent emails: Manually tracked (38 captured)